How badly would British trade suffer if Goeben and Breslau were in the Indian Ocean when war broke out in 1914 with full coal bunkers?
Short answerThey would badly disrupt trade and become more dangerous alongside von Spee, but British, Japanese, Australian, and French forces could turn the Indian Ocean into a converging hunt.
NotesGoeben and Breslau would create a major problem for British trade, with a link-up with von Spee's squadron as the worst case. Geography still constrains the raiders: Suez is unlikely, the route around South Africa invites interception, and Britain can send experienced battlecruisers or even the newly commissioned HMS Tiger to block the exits. The battlecruiser Australia and Japanese Kongo-class ships could also join the hunt. French pre-dreadnoughts around Suez could deter the raiders, reveal their position, or damage them even if they could not win alone. The scenario develops into a coalition pursuit rather than a contest between two German ships and British merchant traffic. Commerce raiders can disrupt trade, but they still need coal, routes, and an escape plan against a global alliance network.