The counterfactual does not assume that everyone in 1930 could reason from wartime carrier experience. Aircraft carriers were an emerging capability, but the aircraft available in 1930 had not yet given them the capabilities demonstrated during World War II. Naval planners therefore still had to compare battle-line speed, range control, and gun power. That period perspective explains why a faster British battle line could remain a concern even as carriers developed.
Notable Point · 1:39:24-1:40:10
Carriers were coming, not yet dominant, in 1930
Early carriers mattered, but contemporary aircraft performance left battle-line speed and gunnery central to American and Japanese reactions.