The critique of the treaty series links increasingly restrictive limits with creative displacement declarations. Japanese cruisers face additional pressure because they must help compensate for a battle line that cannot receive new battleships. Under the proposed settlement, credible new battleships would reduce that burden on cruisers. The forecast still expects Japanese ships nominally limited to 42,000 tons to reach perhaps 43,000 or 44,000 tons. Its claimed benefit is reduced pressure for cruiser evasion, rather than the disappearance of misstatement. A treaty that permits useful construction would also give Japan a reason to keep other signatories within the same restrictions.
Notable Point · 1:52:00-1:54:10
How capital-ship limits spill into cruiser evasion
New Japanese battleships could reduce the pressure to overload cruisers, although the counterfactual still anticipates displacement misstatements.