If World War I ended after a carrier strike on Wilhelmshaven and Australia later chose a carrier flagship, how much would Japanese planning have changed by 1940?
Short answerThe premise changes too much to extrapolate cleanly; carrier success would alter interwar treaties, British, Japanese, and American force structure, and dominion naval policy.
NotesA carrier strike decisive enough to end the First World War would alter the victors' relative prestige and could change whether interwar naval treaties emerged at all. Japanese and British procurement in the 1920s and 1930s would then need to be reconsidered, including whether Japan retained a battleship fleet. An Australian carrier flagship after 1930 raises further questions about a common dominion policy and Royal Navy flag facilities aboard carriers. Admirals might gain experience commanding from flight decks earlier. The American response is equally open: Congress might favour converting the entire Lexington class into carriers. These are unresolved branches of the scenario, so the prompt does not establish enough to predict Japanese plans in 1940.