Ottoman neutrality keeps a supply route open to Russia

What happens to the Ottoman Empire and Russia if the Ottomans stay out of the First World War?

Neutrality could keep supplies flowing to Russia and might push the Ottomans toward the Allies if Germany threatened the straits or Caucasus, although the empire could still face civil war or collapse after the war.

An Ottoman decision to remain neutral would leave a maritime supply route open to Russia. German attempts to close that route or push toward the Caucasus could instead draw the Ottoman Empire toward the Allies and enlarge the fighting in southeastern Europe. Better access to food and other supplies might change the pressures behind Russia's wartime collapse. The Ottoman state would still face severe internal strain after the war, so neutrality does not guarantee its survival.