Would a renewed South American naval arms race in the 1920s end the London Naval Treaty before it began?
Short answerVery large export orders could delay or reshape the treaty because Britain and the United States would face strong industrial incentives to keep building.
NotesThe answer depends on the size and commercial value of the South American orders. Large contracts could sustain employment in politically important shipbuilding districts, giving Britain and the United States reasons to delay or rewrite the treaty system. Orders for ships comparable with Hood or the G3 design would be especially difficult to reconcile with the planned limits. The arms race could therefore change treaty timing through domestic industrial politics as well as fleet calculations.