Why Germany is unlikely to join GCAP

If Japan brings Canada into GCAP as a major customer, how likely is Germany to switch into the program?

Unlikely, because Germany would demand a large industrial share, reopening the workshare disputes already balancing British, Italian, and Japanese interests and risking another program breakdown.

Canada could join mainly as a large buyer without demanding control over the established industrial structure. Germany would seek a larger share of design and production work. That claim would compete directly with the interests of Britain, Italy, and Japan, which joined from the beginning. The same kind of workshare dispute already troubling Franco-German cooperation could destabilize GCAP.