Q&A · 1:08:30-1:11:55

Modern fleets if missile technology stopped in 1945

A technology counterfactual explores warships in a world where missile development stopped in 1945.

Question

What would modern naval vessels look like if missile technology had not advanced beyond 1945?

Short answer

Carriers would probably remain dominant, but automated medium-caliber guns would become central and make unguided air attack extremely costly.

Notes

With missile development frozen at 1945, the initial expectation is that automatic 6-inch and 8-inch guns would be prominent on surface warships. Aircraft carriers would remain important, while battleships are still not expected to survive as the dominant type. Rapid-fire defensive guns, illustrated by three or four OTO Melara 76 mm mounts, would make attacks with unguided bombs dangerous. A panel contribution suggests the Buccaneer as an aircraft designed for that sort of attack, without claiming it would be invulnerable. Guided bombs and early drones then complicate the premise because freezing missiles does not necessarily freeze every form of guided aerial weapon.