Why Antarctic oil need not produce a second Falklands War

Could reported Antarctic oil reserves produce a second Falklands-style war when the treaty comes up for renewal around 2040?

That is unlikely because the principal treaty powers favor an orderly renewal, while Argentina's economic constraints limit the naval buildup needed for such a conflict.

The answer separates the discovery of valuable resources from an automatic slide into war. The Antarctic framework is multilateral, and the major powers involved have strong reasons to renew it quietly even if some states try to press for a larger role. Argentina's economic condition also constrains long-term naval procurement. A comparison with 1982 therefore cannot assume the same bilateral escalation or the same available forces. Resource claims must be weighed against the institutions and naval capacity required to turn them into conflict.