The prospective Atlantic campaign resembles the Mediterranean convoys to Malta in the Second World War. Those convoys sometimes suffered terrible losses, but most still delivered at least part of their cargo. The same distinction matters in 1986 because sinking individual merchants is not identical to stopping reinforcement. NATO can claim operational success despite painful attrition if viable ships arrive, whereas the Soviet campaign must destroy enough of each convoy to break the reinforcement flow. The analogy shifts the measure of victory from ships lost to military capacity delivered.
Notable Point · 2:16:52-2:18:43
The Malta convoy analogy measures success by cargo delivered
NATO convoys could suffer severe losses and still succeed if enough ships and cargo reached Europe, while the Soviet Union would need to destroy whole formations to stop reinforcement.