April 2022 caution on Black Sea naval deployments

Why did an April 2022 assessment expect Russia to avoid an Odessa landing and warn against direct NATO warship deployments into the Black Sea?

He expected coastal missiles to make Odessa dangerous and judged that sending high-profile NATO ships could add escalation and propaganda risks without enough operational benefit.

In an April 2022 assessment during the opening phase of Russia's invasion, a landing at Odessa seemed unlikely because the Russian navy appeared more cautious than the army about Ukrainian capability. Concealed land-based anti-ship missiles were the likely defence of such a valuable coastal target, making the port a deliberately prickly objective. Sending an Astute-class submarine into the Black Sea also looked unnecessarily risky when the boats were useful elsewhere. A U.S. Arleigh Burke deployment would create a larger political problem by giving the Kremlin visible grounds to portray a war against Ukraine as a direct war against NATO. Naval presence therefore had to be judged by escalation effects as well as combat power.