Anti-ship missiles emerged from a long guided-weapon continuum

How would anti-ship missile development begin if a prominent post-war test target had not been sunk?

Development would continue anyway because guided anti-ship work already stretched from 1930s glide bombs through German wartime weapons into British and American programmes.

The loss or survival of one target ship would not create anti-ship missile development from nothing. Researchers were already examining glide bombs and other guided means of attacking ships during the 1930s. Early progress was constrained by metallurgy, aerodynamic design, and control technology rather than a lack of interest. German wartime weapons then provided operational examples, while Britain and the United States continued both adapted and indigenous lines until practical missiles emerged.