The memorandum presents a logical mechanism for inflicting far more damage. The weakness is its implicit picture of Britain sitting still and absorbing that damage. Strategy cannot predict an opponent's exact response, but it must leave room for adaptation, new defences, and changed policy. Without that allowance, a numerical forecast becomes what the episode calls a hope rather than a plan. The U-boat forecast depended on assumptions about an opponent who could adapt.
Notable Point · 24:31-25:38
An enemy response is not a fixed input
The critique of Holtzendorff's calculation is that it forecast losses precisely without making adequate allowance for how Britain would change its behaviour.