Notable Point · 16:23-18:18

All-forward batteries can optimize the wrong problem

Survivorship bias raises the question of whether concentrated machinery, armour, and guns compensate for the firing arcs an all-forward battery cannot cover.

Notes

The gun arrangements of the Nelson class and the G3 and N3 designs make engineering sense because they cluster machinery, armament, and armour into compact sections. The criticism compares this reasoning with survivorship bias in returning aircraft, where visible bullet holes can tempt planners to protect areas that were not fatal. Neat concentration may conceal the operational cost of leaving a large firing arc uncovered. The analogy warns that incomplete evidence and engineering convenience can lead designers to optimize the wrong problem.