Kuznetsov's retirement and Russia's carrier-building limits

Can Russia sell Admiral Kuznetsov or build a full-size replacement carrier?

A sale is implausible, and a replacement would require major new yard investment while competing for scarce money, labor, and industrial capacity.

In this July 2025 assessment, Kuznetsov's retirement is overdue after prolonged maintenance failures, and a sale looks implausible. India has developed its own carrier-building program and has little reason to buy the troubled ship. Russia's suitable large yards are occupied with economically important nuclear icebreakers, while its historic carrier-building facilities are caught in the war. Developing the dock facility used for Kuznetsov into a carrier-building yard would require substantial investment, time, and workers. Allowing fixed-wing naval aviation to lapse and beginning a replacement program remain alternative explanations for the decision to retire her. A future STOBAR carrier is considered plausible, but the size forecast is disputed: one participant favors a smaller ship, while Clarke expects prestige to push displacement toward the Queen Elizabeth class. These forecasts depend on events over the following several years. Public claims that carriers are unnecessary are treated as unreliable evidence of a permanent policy decision.