Video
Trident Fails to Fly
Study Trident Fails to Fly, a Dr. Alex Clarke video from 21 Feb 2024, with 20 time notes. Topics include British Defence Policy, Defence Procurement, Defence Readiness.
Time notes
- 0:16Trident D5 as an Anglo-American programChapter
Britain and the United States pool Trident D5 missiles and testing data, so a British launch contributes to a shared record.
- 0:45Why missile-test failures can strengthen reliabilityNotable Point
The second reported failure in eight years prompts a defence of realistic testing, supported by rough estimates of Trident's wider test record.
- 1:26Separating submarine performance from missile failureNotable Point
Public reports suggested that the submarine performed as intended while the missile failed, leaving the missile fault's precise cause unspecified.
- 1:56SpaceX as an analogy for test failureNotable Point
Continued use of SpaceX despite test failures illustrates why an occasional failed launch need not destroy confidence in a complex delivery system.
- 2:44Why reporting a failed Trident test mattersNotable Point
Public reporting of the failed launch is treated as reassuring because concealment would create an additional reason for concern.
- 3:31Australian fleet plans and British procurement choicesChapter
Australia's plan for a fleet larger than Britain's prompts criticism of British procurement choices despite Britain's greater economic and industrial resources.
- 4:15Personnel capacity during defence transitionsNotable Point
A transition between legacy and new equipment requires enough personnel to sustain both capabilities until the replacement is dependable.
- 5:20Press framing and deterrence credibilityNotable Point
A cautious newspaper headline is used to argue that the failed test raised legitimate questions without demonstrating that Britain's deterrent had collapsed.
- 5:48Britain's nuclear and conventional deterrence imbalanceChapter
The argument warns that cuts to conventional forces have left Britain dangerously reliant on nuclear status, while doubting that disarmament savings would rebuild those forces.
- 6:30How nuclear deterrence sets boundaries between powersNotable Point
British and French nuclear forces are presented as a way for European powers to impose limits and compel negotiation.
- 7:21Why unilateral nuclear disarmament may not be reciprocatedNotable Point
Unilateral disarmament may do little to persuade nuclear-dependent regimes to surrender their own weapons.
- 8:05Test failures and promises of constant carrier availabilityChapter
Failed tests challenge promises of perfect equipment performance and the assumption that two carriers can guarantee continuous availability.
- 9:04Fixing carrier propulsion faults while there is timeNotable Point
HMS Queen Elizabeth's difficulties illustrate why propulsion faults should be corrected while peacetime still provides an opportunity.
- 9:32HMS Prince of Wales accelerates deploymentNotable Point
HMS Prince of Wales moving from roughly 30 days' notice to sea in eight days demonstrates the value of professional readiness under pressure.
- 10:13Replacing five British flight decks with two carriersChapter
The count of British flight decks falls from five to two in an argument about availability, with Argus's continuing but different duties explicitly acknowledged.
- 10:50From sea blindness to defence blindnessNotable Point
Public attention turns to force shortages during crises but rarely holds election-time defence promises to account beforehand.
- 11:26Who owns the Ministry of Defence budget gap?Chapter
The Ministry of Defence is blamed for commitments exceeding its budget even though government and Treasury approve both the commitments and allocation.
- 12:48How stretching carrier construction raised costsNotable Point
Extending the Queen Elizabeth-class build schedule is used to show how short-term budget timing can increase a program's total cost.
- 13:08Type 45 cancellations and misleading unit costNotable Point
Cutting the Type 45 program from twelve destroyers to six loaded research costs onto fewer hulls and inflated the apparent price per ship.
- 13:46Whole-capability costs and procurement churnChapter
Training, spares and transport are necessary capability costs; repeatedly shifting political or Treasury timetables adds a separate expense.