Stalin would probably wait to see where Japanese forces deployed before deciding how to respond. Remaining neutral could exclude the Soviet Union from a settlement shaped by Britain, Japan, and possibly the United States. Joining the Allies might let him prevent the coalition from becoming an alliance against the Soviet Union. He could instead interpret renewed Anglo-Japanese cooperation as preparation for another war against Russia and seek support from Germany and Italy. Recent fighting against Japan, the partition of Poland, and the Winter War would complicate those choices.
Chapter · 1:49:58-1:54:41
Stalin must choose between neutrality and a seat at the peace table
A renewed Anglo-Japanese alliance would leave Stalin watching deployments while weighing whether neutrality, the Axis, or the Allies best protects the Soviet Union.