Notable Point · 3:08:55-3:10:17

Avoiding war with Japan would strengthen Chiang Kai-shek

Chiang Kai-shek could face the Chinese Communists with stronger forces and possible Japanese, British, and American support.

Notes

Without the Second Sino-Japanese War, Chiang Kai-shek would have more opportunity to organise China and would avoid exhausting his forces against Japan before confronting the Communists. An anti-Soviet coalition could then bring Japanese, British, and American support against Mao. The historical comparison also matters: the Nationalists faced Japanese attacks and had little choice about fighting back. On this reading, their war effort against Japan was heavier than that of other Chinese factions relative to their forces and the effort they expended.