Operation Berlin and a later Bismarck sortie become competing risks in this scenario. Sending Scharnhorst and Gneisenau first could cost Germany both ships and Admiral Lütjens, making another sortie harder to approve. Waiting to use all three capital ships would postpone the operation until about May 1941. By then, Italy might have left the war and released still more Allied naval strength against Germany.
Notable Point · 2:41:21-2:42:31
Waiting for Bismarck could close Germany's raiding opportunity
German planners would have to choose between risking Scharnhorst and Gneisenau early and waiting until Italy's defeat released more Allied ships.