Q&A · 2:55:58-2:58:05

Would Argentina exploit a NATO-Soviet war to seize the Falklands?

A distracted alliance is not necessarily a permissive target when an opportunistic attack can bind its members together against the new belligerent.

Question

Would a 1980 NATO-Soviet war give Argentina a good opportunity to seize the Falkland Islands?

Short answer

No. Attacking Britain while it fought alongside the United States and other NATO powers would risk making Argentina an enemy of the stronger coalition, at a time when Buenos Aires would have reasons to court Washington instead.

Notes

The apparent opportunity reverses once alliance politics are considered. An Argentine attack on Britain during a NATO war would look like support for the opposing side and could trigger an American as well as British response. NATO would remain the dominant maritime power south and west of the GIUK battle area even while Soviet raiders created local trouble. In other counterfactual wars, attacking one member of an already cooperating coalition likewise places the attacker on the enemy side.