Would Japan really negotiate when it refused to quit in the historical Pacific War?
Short answerPossibly: the more pragmatic faction in power in 1939 might accept an honourable peace that preserved Japan while ending its empire.
NotesThe pragmatic naval leadership of 1939 differed from the hard-line government that fought the later Pacific War to the brink of destruction. A blockade that denied Japan fuel and prevented the early conquests of Singapore and the Dutch East Indies would leave that leadership with fewer military options. Britain could frame a settlement as an honourable way to preserve Japan, its society, and its culture while ending the empire. Withdrawal from Korea and China could form part of the terms, with the identity of the occupying powers shaping both regions' political futures. This is a contingent political judgment rather than a certain outcome.