Ending the war in 1916 leaves the United States as a lender rather than a belligerent and removes its stake in constructing a postwar naval settlement. Britain would likely return to its prewar strategic posture while France and Russia continued their uneasy partnership. Imperial Russia would still press for warm-water ports through Turkey, Persia, India, or China, making renewed conflict with Britain and its Japanese ally plausible. The political foundation for a Washington-style naval treaty would therefore disappear before the fleets themselves were negotiated.
Notable Point · 11:33-13:08
Why ending the war too early changes the naval world
A 1916 peace before American entry would remove the basis for the Washington treaty system and revive Anglo-Russian competition over warm-water access.