How long would Tirpitz survive in this altered war?
Short answerNot long if she faced a concentrated Royal Navy, and sustained fighting in France might prevent Tirpitz or even Bismarck from being completed on schedule.
NotesA Royal Navy concentrated around the northern exits makes Tirpitz vulnerable if she operates from Norway. Concealment in the fjords could prolong her survival, but any sortie would confront a stronger and less dispersed Home Fleet. The prior question is whether Germany can complete her on schedule at all while a prolonged war in France consumes fuel, labor, transport, and industrial attention. The same doubt applies to Bismarck, making construction delay as important as the ships' eventual operational fate.