France continuing the fight could lead Hitler to press Spain harder for entry into the war. Franco's government is still expected to stay out. Wilhelm Canaris's mission to Spain and his efforts to dissuade Spanish participation support that judgment. Spain therefore remains a political and intelligence variable in the counterfactual rather than an automatic Axis second front.
Notable Point · 2:08:48-2:09:09
Why Spain probably still stays out of the war
Even under heavier German pressure, Canaris's influence and Spanish reluctance would probably preserve nonbelligerence.