Japan's 60 percent treaty ratio fell below the 70 percent it had wanted. The strategic argument is that the loss of confidence mattered as much as the numerical disadvantage: a defensive contest looked unwinnable, increasing the appeal of offensive action. Italy, by comparison, gained diplomatic status through parity with France. In the alternative treaty proposed here, Britain and the United States would each retain 20 capital ships, Japan 14, and France and Italy eight apiece. That 10:7 relationship could have preserved more Japanese and French confidence without greatly changing the balance at sea. Larger carrier allowances might also have encouraged Britain and the United States to build more 27,000-ton carriers resembling full-size Yorktown or Implacable designs.
Notable Point · 19:03-22:29
The Washington treaty pushed Japan toward an offensive solution
The 5:5:3 capital-ship ratio weakened Japanese confidence in a defensive war and increased the appeal of striking first.