Promising technologies often accumulate confident theories before they are tested in war. Small civilian UAVs in Ukraine provide the 2022 example: they were supplying troops with information in ways some analysts had predicted, while other expectations remained uncertain. A disappointing result might reflect immature technology, the particulars of the conflict, or a faulty theory. Military planners therefore need a conservative margin when incorporating novel systems. Armed forces may be wagering national survival and lives when an untried concept fails.
Notable Point · 1:03:13-1:04:58
Why militaries cannot bet the state on unproven technology
The 2022 UAV example shows why promising theories still require a conservative margin when failure could cost lives or national survival.