Q&A ยท 4:12:20-4:15:28

A hypothetical fleet for Ukrainian grain shipping in 2023

A July 2023 hypothetical links submarines, Type 23 or Type 31 frigates, land-based fighters and airborne warning, with serious staffing limits.

Question

What naval forces could help Ukraine protect grain shipping?

Short answer

The hypothetical package combines submarines, anti-submarine escorts, Sea Ceptor and land-based air cover. Its training and staffing demands make receiving and operating the whole force unlikely in the assessment given here.

Notes

This July 2023 proposal begins with diesel-electric submarines to make hostile surface operations difficult. Type 23s are suggested as anti-submarine frigates that other countries might be willing to release; a new-build alternative would be a Type 31 carrying as much Sea Ceptor as practicable. Land-based F-16s or F-18s and airborne warning aircraft would provide an outer air-defence layer, with shipborne missiles engaging threats that got through. Helicopters would support anti-submarine work, while submarines would complicate Russian naval movements. The proposal depends on these capabilities operating together. Supplying ships would leave a substantial training and skilled-personnel burden during an ongoing war, and the closing assessment doubts that the full package would be obtained.