What would happen to existing naval orders if parts of the United Kingdom became independent?
Short answerNaval orders are predicted to move to England, though no contract-transfer process is set out. Investment uncertainty and regional politics complicate the hypothetical.
NotesClarke expects remaining Royal Navy orders to move to England if Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland leave the United Kingdom. This is his prediction within the hypothetical, with no transfer terms for particular contracts supplied. The wider argument distinguishes support for a nationalist party from support for independence. Repeated uncertainty about a future system of government is presented as an obstacle to long-term investment in Scotland. Claims about bank withdrawals, EU membership and offshore resources remain the participants' political assessments rather than agreed outcomes. Clarke also links the imbalance between London and other regions to a service-based economy and the declining value placed on manufacturing skills.