Historically, twenty-one of the planned twenty-four Swordfish made the Taranto strike, and eleven of the planned twelve torpedoes were launched. A counterfactual attack by roughly seventy-two aircraft or more could deliver at least thirty-six torpedoes. That would very likely leave Giulio Cesare as the only capital ship still operational, because other ships blocked almost every torpedo approach to her berth. Skua dive bombers could instead attack her with bombs and inflict enough damage to keep her out of service. The other battleships could be sunk, beached, or badly damaged by attacks arriving in two waves. Italy's limited repair capacity would prioritize the newer Vittorio Veneto-class ships, leaving older vessels to wait. The resulting British superiority could last far longer than the temporary advantage gained by the historical raid.
Notable Point · 41:38-45:03
A triple-carrier Taranto could create lasting superiority
Scaling Taranto from twenty-one Swordfish to roughly three carrier air groups could overload Italian repair capacity and turn temporary advantage into a lasting reduction of the battle fleet.