Notable Point · 18:52-20:51

Why an arms-control treaty cannot maximize one side's victory

A durable naval treaty must leave every signatory with enough advantage to prefer compliance over withdrawal or rearmament.

Notes

American intelligence helped negotiators identify how far other powers could be pushed, but winning the bargain too decisively could destroy its durability. States comply while an arrangement remains in their interest. A signatory repeatedly held to its bare minimum eventually has little reason to preserve the agreement. A negotiator may therefore need to give up part of a possible national advantage to reduce the chance that a dissatisfied power later abandons the system.