Heavy US-China trade does not make a hot war impossible because states have repeatedly fought major trading partners. Commerce can increase the cost of conflict and give governments reasons for restraint, but it does not remove political or strategic causes of war. The historical warning is to treat interdependence as one influence on decisions rather than a mechanical peace guarantee.
Notable Point · 2:15:17-2:15:34
Why large trade flows do not guarantee peace
Economic interdependence can raise the cost of conflict, but history does not support treating a state's largest trading partner as automatically safe from war.