Direct election still leaves Tillman a path to reelection

Would direct popular election have broken Tillman's hold on his Senate seat?

The change had already occurred during his career. Winning the Democratic primary still put him in a strong position to retain the seat.

Direct popular election had already replaced the earlier selection system during Tillman's career. He had won under that arrangement. In safely Democratic South Carolina, securing the party's nomination still put him in a strong position to retain the Senate seat. The counterfactual therefore turns on his survival and control of the primary rather than assuming that direct election would automatically remove him.