The Philippines are the central dilemma in this alternate 1939 war. An offensive against them could secure Japanese communications in the South China Sea, but would make American involvement unavoidable. Avoiding that escalation leaves Japan with a slower, more difficult move toward Singapore after British and Indian reinforcements have begun arriving. Its carrier force is also still far smaller and lacks the concentrated organization that made the 1941 strikes possible.
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The Philippines force Japan's strategic choice
Japan must choose between risking war with the United States by taking the Philippines or allowing British reinforcements to make Singapore harder to attack.