The counterfactual is pressure-tested with a tabletop game, a computer scenario, and an oral discursion among knowledgeable participants. Each method changes Germany's losses in Norway without improving the French Army's preparation or its positions on the ground. A Norwegian victory might give the French government greater confidence, but its political structure still prevents a decisive change. The exercise carries the divergence forward selectively instead of treating one Allied success as a cure for unrelated French weaknesses.
Notable Point · 18:35-20:49
Testing what victory in Norway does not change
Tabletop, computer, and oral tests all leave France's military and political weaknesses intact even after a German disaster in Norway.