Chapter · 47:31-53:39

A 10:7 ratio could give Japan status while strengthening deterrence

Twenty British and American capital ships against fourteen Japanese ships could satisfy Japan's desired ratio yet increase the combined Allied margin.

Notes

The historical 5:3 ratio generated resentment while limiting Britain and America to fifteen capital ships each. A 10:7 ratio cannot be expressed cleanly with fifteen ships, so the proposed alternative gives Britain and the United States twenty apiece and Japan fourteen. Japan would gain status and enough strength not to look like a speed bump, yet the possible combined opposing advantage would rise from twenty-one ships to twenty-six. An American Atlantic detachment could pass through the Panama Canal, while British capital ships in the Indian Ocean would force Japan to count a second Allied axis alongside the American Pacific fleet. Because the allocation covered the British Empire rather than Britain alone, an Imperial force might even include a Dominion capital ship such as HMAS Australia. The counterfactual shows how a numerically more generous settlement could improve deterrence while reducing the political incentive to evade it.