No settled third or fourth offset exists yet, despite abundant slogans. Admirals and generals must offer governments firm answers because decision-making institutions require them, even when fast-moving technology may change the answer within a year. That institutional demand for certainty sits uneasily beside a subject that remains open to argument. The final comparison returns to the Jeune École: later offset language increasingly promises smaller forces that can do more with less.
Notable Point · 44:13-45:43
Why leaders sound certain amid technological change
Leaders sound certain because institutions require decisions, even though rapidly changing technology keeps altering what a future offset might mean.