Q&A ยท 14:39-15:00

A fixed technology margin instead of an automatic escalator

A modest fixed displacement allowance was more negotiable than repeatedly increasing treaty limits by percentage.

Question

Should the treaty automatically increase displacement limits by ten percent every four years for technological growth?

Short answer

Probably not; a fixed allowance of roughly 3,000 tons was more politically plausible than an automatic percentage escalator.

Notes

The proposed escalator would raise allowable displacement by ten percent every four years to absorb technological growth. The design logic is clear, but governments would be unlikely to accept an automatic compounding increase. A fixed allowance of roughly 3,000 tons offers a more politically plausible margin for technological change. The choice is between predictable adaptation and a formula that could appear to authorize a new arms race.