How would earlier Lancaster and Tallboy availability affect Axis warships and shipyards?
Short answerStationary ships and fixed yards would face a severe threat, while ships already under way would have a better chance to evade.
NotesThis counterfactual makes Lancaster bombers and Tallboy weapons available earlier against Axis naval targets. Ships caught in harbour and fixed shipyard infrastructure would face the greatest danger. A moving warship can manoeuvre away from a predicted impact point, while an immobilised ship or industrial target cannot. Target mobility matters more here than any claim that one weapon would automatically decide the wider naval war.