Notable Point · 29:31-30:41

A rapid invasion could try to outrun international coordination

The political timetable depends on both rapid mobilization and rapid success, leaving little room for resistance that lasts longer than expected.

Notes

The hypothetical timetable allows forty-eight hours between deciding on an operation and launching it, followed by seventy-two hours to take Taiwan. Those compressed stages are intended to precede an organized international response. The comparison with Russia's expectations in Ukraine questions the assumption that a defender will collapse on schedule. Taiwan's long development of a distinct identity adds another reason for doubting a rapid political collapse.