Q&A · 37:15-38:30

Taiwan instead of the Philippines

An American Taiwan after the Spanish-American War would create an earlier, sharper confrontation with Japan.

Question

Would the United States have been better off taking Taiwan rather than the Philippines?

Short answer

It would be strategically consequential, but it requires a radically different earlier war and likely worsens relations with Japan.

Notes

Taiwan was not part of the Spanish-American settlement, so acquiring it would require a different war rather than a different choice from the same peace terms. An American-held island so close to Japan would create a major strategic rivalry much earlier than the historical Pacific confrontation. One possible consequence is an American-Japanese war replacing the Russo-Japanese War around 1905. The international system and both navies were very different then, which prevents a simple verdict on whether Taiwan was a better possession than the Philippines.