Q&A · 20:27-22:33

Why an attack on Taiwan would become a difficult invasion

Taiwan's deterrence preparations remain uncertain, while a contested invasion would still face a strait crossing, entrenched defenses, and immediate urban combat.

Question

How far might Taiwan be willing to go to deter an attack by the People's Republic of China?

Short answer

No nuclear capability is claimed, but categorical assumptions about Taiwan's preparations are unsafe; a contested landing would still become a difficult amphibious and urban campaign.

Notes

The possibility of a Chinese attack raises a difficult deterrence question. Taiwan's former dictatorship, advanced industry, and extensive defenses make categorical assumptions about the limits of its preparations unsafe, although no nuclear capability is asserted. Even without such a deterrent, an invasion would have to cross the strait and force a landing against prepared defenses. A contested beachhead would then enter dense urban terrain and become a difficult amphibious and ground war.