Q&A · 3:40:30-3:41:19

Why a nearby threat can sharpen counterintelligence

Concern about Chinese penetration of Taiwan's hierarchy is balanced against the institutional learning created by living beside a larger persistent threat.

Question

How vulnerable might Taiwan's leadership be to Chinese penetration?

Short answer

The risk is real, but persistent proximity to China gives Taiwan powerful incentives to build unusually capable and loyal counterintelligence services.

Notes

Penetration of Taiwan's leadership is a legitimate concern, though it can be overstated. Russia had expected compromised Ukrainian institutions to help produce a very short war, yet that expectation failed. States facing a close and powerful opponent have unusually strong incentives to invest in counterintelligence, surveillance and loyal security services. Taiwan may therefore be better prepared in this field than a simple comparison of Chinese size and influence would imply.