War could still follow Tillman's settlement, especially between the United States and Japan. Britain, France, and Italy would enter a crisis with more naval strength, while the Pacific balance and the relationship between European and Asian conflicts could develop differently. The diplomatic proposition is that confident states perceive fewer ambiguous actions as existential threats. Greater confidence can therefore raise the threshold for fearful reactions and reduce the incentives that timidity offers to aggressive powers, even when deterrence ultimately fails.
Notable Point · 1:32:09-1:35:14
Could stronger treaty fleets improve diplomacy?
The scenario closes by asking whether more capable and confident treaty navies might communicate better even if a Pacific conflict still occurs.