The Soviet Union could receive supplies through the Far East and Iran as well as through Arctic convoys. In the Arctic, the counterfactual makes enough ships available for a heavy covering force of two or three carriers and two or three capital ships or more. German forces that could be based and sustained in Norway are judged insufficient to drive that force away. Submarines would still pose a threat, but the covering force would have more aircraft and other resources to respond. A repetition of the PQ 17 disaster is therefore considered unlikely within this scenario. Together with the wider Allied offensive, this improved supply position forms part of the tentative projection that the war could end during 1943.
Notable Point · 1:51:10-1:52:54
More carriers change the Arctic convoy covering force
The enlarged coalition fleet could protect Soviet supply routes with several carriers and capital ships, changing the conditions behind a PQ 17-type disaster.