The likely outcome for the fleet and Kimmel

The forecast closest to history still costs the United States battleships, but fewer may be sunk or disabled than at Pearl Harbor. More surviving ships could see wartime use, although carriers remain the leading operational arm because the overall balance and fleet organization still demand it. If the base is hit while Kimmel is under orders at sea, blame shifts toward Hawaii's army command rather than resting automatically on the Pacific Fleet commander. If Kimmel instead fights at sea and damages Japanese carriers, any preexisting political preference to replace him becomes much harder to implement. In either branch, uncertain target location, aircraft range, and the need to preserve return fuel turn the campaign into a tail chase rather than a single fixed raid.