How would world politics change if Yuan Shikai stabilized China without declaring himself emperor?
Short answerA stronger China could make Japan reject or reshape naval limits, especially while Russia was also rearming in northeast Asia.
NotesAvoiding Yuan Shikai's imperial proclamation alone does not supply a solution to China's political instability. His experience came from a collapsing imperial system, and the interpretation here questions whether he had an alternative capable of holding the state together. If stability is granted as part of the counterfactual, however, a growing Chinese navy changes Japan's regional calculation. With both China and Soviet Russia arming, Japan could demand security guarantees before accepting naval limits. The Washington treaty system would then depend on a different diplomatic bargain.