How might an early end to the war affect the spread and severity of the Spanish flu pandemic?
Short answerThe impact may be smaller because less-worn-down populations would enter the pandemic with better underlying health.
NotesThe argument rests on baseline health rather than assuming the influenza virus never appears. Shortening the war means fewer people reach the outbreak after another year of fighting, disruption, and declining underlying health. The pandemic's spread or mortality could therefore be less severe. This is a plausible downstream effect of the counterfactual, rather than a claim that the 1918 outbreak disappears.