If Japan took Spain's Pacific empire instead of the United States

What if Spain and the United States avoided war, but Spain and Japan fought over the Philippines and other Pacific islands?

Japan would probably take the Pacific possessions, but Spain might emerge better able to defend Cuba after shedding an expensive imperial commitment.

Spain would contest the Philippines politically and militarily, but the panel sees the islands as an expensive burden that drained a declining empire. Losing them to Japan without a simultaneous war against the United States could relieve that burden without the same domestic consequences as a colonial rebellion. Resources could then be concentrated on Cuba, making the remaining colony harder for Washington to challenge. The naval counterfactual therefore turns on the redistribution of imperial commitments rather than Spain defeating Japan outright in the western Pacific.