What would have followed if the space-shuttle bomber concept had been tested successfully?
Short answerIt could have produced a hard-to-detect loitering global strike system while prompting Soviet and wider efforts to build equivalents.
NotesA successful shuttle-bomber test would amount to the overt militarisation of orbital space, beyond the military support already provided by satellites. The vehicle could offer global precision prompt strike with effects comparable to a ballistic missile. Because it might remain in orbit for days, an opponent would find the moment and origin of an attack harder to detect than a conventional missile launch. The Soviet Union would probably pursue an equivalent, with other states joining the competition. The counterfactual combines persistent orbital deployment, warning-time problems, and a widened space arms race.