Soviet logistics and the direction of postwar expansion

After an early Japanese naval defeat, Stalin might exploit the altered balance in Manchuria, Korea, or Europe. Soviet logistics could support one main direction at a time, as shown by the sequence of the 1939 conflict with Japan, the move into Poland, and the later attack in Manchuria. Without wartime Allied fuel, aircraft engines, and other support, Soviet forces would also retain more older equipment. Moscow is therefore more likely to focus on Europe, where renewed expansion could bring it into conflict with an Allied coalition unwilling to replace one dictator with another.